Who is behind the 30% plunge in battery prices

2022-07-26
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Battery prices plunged 30%! Who is behind this

in 2017, the battery market was extremely lively, with more than 100 billion yuan of capital pouring in. Vehicle enterprises set off an upsurge of self built systems, and the prices of raw materials have risen successively, all revealing an elusive sense of helplessness

the decline in battery prices has made it more difficult for power battery enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, to survive

who is behind the battery price reduction

since the beginning of this year, the price of lithium battery has plummeted by 20% - 30%. On the one hand, the prices of upstream materials have soared in turn, and on the other hand, the downstream automobile enterprises have strongly demanded price reduction. Battery enterprises are caught in the middle, under pressure at both ends, and are facing the dual pressure of market and cost

① the prices of upstream materials soared in turn. Cobalt prices rose sharply at the beginning of this year, lithium carbonate prices soared in August, nickel prices soared during the national day, and the prices of upstream raw materials remained strong and the boom was expected to continue. A person in charge of a power battery enterprise said that affected by the rising prices of raw materials such as upstream cobalt and lithium, the cost of the enterprise has increased by at least 15% this year

② the exemption from purchase tax will end at the end of this year, and the current subsidy standard will decline by 20% in 2018. Among them, the subsidy for passenger cars and special vehicles declined by about 20%, and that for passenger cars declined by 30%-50%. The proportion of local supporting subsidies decreased from 1:1 to 1:0.5. The new energy vehicle enterprises that rely heavily on government subsidies to "feed" have been severely hit for a while, requiring power battery enterprises to cut prices sharply

the information of purchase tax and subsidy policies is shown in the following figure:

③ in the first half of 2017, the overall gear rod in the car market was dirty and depressed, and the sales volume was poor, which was directly transmitted to the upstream battery enterprises. However, only two months before the end of the year, due to the early decline of subsidies, it is expected that there will be a rush to install in 2018, which does not rule out that some battery manufacturers will launch a promotional price war

under the dual pressure of automobile enterprises and material enterprises, battery enterprises not only have to share the cost, but also have to bear the price reduction requirements of the overall environment, so their profitability is reduced

how can battery enterprises break the ice and reduce costs

at present, China's new energy vehicle market is entering a new expansion period, while the power battery, as the core of new energy vehicles, is standing at the wind outlet and still faces many challenges

first, auto enterprises build their own supply system. On the one hand, a number of automobile manufacturers are planning to build their own power battery system, and some automobile enterprises are trying to seize the core parts with pack as the starting point. For example, on October 24, BMW Brilliance launched its power battery center project in Shenyang and Dongfeng Motor Group held shares in Ningde times; On the other hand, many large European and American auto companies have begun to directly carry out research and development and evaluation of advanced battery materials, so as to occupy the "heart" of new energy vehicles and continue to lead the industry in the development of new energy vehicles, such as international auto giants such as BMW, Mercedes Benz, Volkswagen and general motors

second, the upstream and middle enterprises decide the future equipment and the preparation machine. The middle and upper reaches of lithium battery enterprises rely on their own industrial chain advantages to enter the power battery industry

third, foreign or joint venture battery companies began to gradually enter the promotion directory. For local battery enterprises, the pressure has increased sharply, while for small and medium-sized enterprises, it can be described as a devastating impact

in addition to the wolves, the problem of improving the quality and reducing the cost of battery enterprises is still a "worry"

at present, the shipments of ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries basically accounted for 95% of the power battery market in 2016. However, due to the obvious concentration and differentiation, the shipments of batteries made of other materials were extremely low, and the type competition was fierce, which exacerbated the excess capacity of power batteries

with the scale-up of the leading enterprises, the yield of good products increases, the upstream lithium, cobalt, nickel, etc. rise in turn, and the downstream subsidies are reduced. The pressure on both ends of the battery enterprises is becoming more and more obvious, and the road to cost reduction may be quite difficult

lithium electric big data understands that the price of battery system has been reduced from 3.5 yuan/wh five years ago to less than 1.8 yuan/wh at present, and there is a long way to go to achieve the previous goal of the Ministry of industry and information technology to reduce the cost of battery pack to less than 1 yuan/wh by 2020

it is worth mentioning that the price reduction range of different batteries is different, which further reduces the profits of battery enterprises. In 2017, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery decreased by about 20%-30%, while the price of ternary battery decreased by about 10%-15%

insiders believe that although the battery price has dropped significantly, it does not mean that the space for cost reduction has been compressed. In his opinion, the biggest space lies in the improvement of battery energy density brought about by technological progress. If the energy density is doubled, it is equivalent to that the battery cost can drive the new indirect economic benefits of relevant industries up to us More than 50000 billion yuan, down nearly half

in this case, in order to keep a stable position, the most critical thing is to master the core technology, do well and strengthen the product quality, so as to reduce costs and improve the profitability of the enterprise, otherwise it will be eliminated

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