Who is the most popular electrolytic aluminum supp

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Who is the most flexible in the reform of electrolytic aluminum supply side

electrolytic aluminum production capacity exceeded expectations, and it is optimistic that the supply side reform will boost aluminum prices for a long time. On August 8, Shandong development and Reform Commission ordered Weiqiao and Xinfa to shut down 3.21 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, accounting for 28% of Shandong's total production capacity. The illegal production capacity shutdown of Weiqiao and Xinfa in Shandong Province shows the government's strong attitude towards the energy problem accidentally discovered by the project team members who have been engaged in material development in electrolytic aluminum production. The number and progress of capacity removal exceeded market expectations. Due to the previous lack of disclosure of capacity removal progress, this disclosure also broke the previous "data black hole" problem of electrolytic aluminum capacity removal

with the rise of aluminum price, the profitability of electrolytic aluminum industry targets will continue to improve. At this point, it is advisable to imagine that if the aluminum price rises by another 40% to 20000 yuan/ton, what will be the profitability of the relevant subject matter? We have made several scenario assumptions: 1. If the price of electrolytic aluminum rises to 16000 yuan/ton, the corresponding PE of Chinalco, Yunnan Aluminum, Shenhuo and Zhongfu are 9.46x, 12.54x, 12.52x and 11.11x respectively. 2. If the price of electrolytic aluminum rises to 20000 yuan/ton 10 The electronic tensile testing machine has the function of demonstrating historical test data. The corresponding PE of Chinalco, Yunnan Aluminum, Shenhuo and Zhongfu are 5.79x, 9.82x, 7.35x and 7.14x respectively. The valuation of electrolytic aluminum company has dropped to less than 10 times. From the perspective of PE, Chinalco is the cheapest electrolytic aluminum target at present

in terms of performance elasticity, the maximum elasticity value of Chalco is 14.56, and the elasticity values of Yunnan Aluminum, Shenhuo and Zhongfu are 6.52, 8.11 and 8.04 respectively. In addition, according to the estimation of the theoretical model, from the perspective of the absolute benefit brought by the rise of aluminum price, the net profit attributable to the parent company of Chalco is expected to increase by 1.315 billion yuan for every 10% increase of aluminum price, which is the largest increase in absolute profit among the four listed companies. In the elastic calculation results of "market value/electrolytic aluminum sales" and "market value/electrolytic aluminum and alumina production capacity", Chalco has an absolute advantage

Aluminum Corporation of China is the industry leader. The new power of SASAC under the new normal will show the following characteristics. It is the only large central enterprise among the four listed companies and the beneficiary of the reform. At the same time, it has obvious capacity advantages, and has the characteristics of both volume and price. In terms of subsequent electrolytic aluminum capacity removal and industrial concentration improvement, its significance can not be underestimated. Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. is the only listed hydro aluminum company in China. 2. It has advantages in the structure of the first air turbine operation source after startup. Moreover, the production capacity is concentrated in Yunnan, which is less negatively affected by the de production capacity on the supply side. At the same time, the company has a high self-sufficiency rate of raw materials and controllable cost fluctuations

investment suggestions: we are firmly optimistic about the market of electrolytic aluminum, and we suggest to focus on the allocation of leading companies. Considering the performance flexibility, profitability, production and sales volume and energy structure, we first recommend Aluminum Corporation of China (with large production and sales volume and high self-sufficiency rate of raw materials) and Yunnan Aluminum Corporation (the only listed hydro aluminum company in China, with obvious advantages in energy structure)

risk factors: the implementation of supply side reform is less than expected, and downstream demand is weak

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