It is difficult to restore confidence in the most

2022-08-07
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It is difficult to restore confidence in the joint rescue of the market. In the panic, the oil price continues to find the bottom

the role of inventory

as we all know, inventory, as a key link in the process of trade and commodity circulation, has always been the focus of attention. There is a close relationship between inventory and the price of the commodity. Of course, oil with both commodity and financial attributes is no exception. Although there are many factors that affect the change of oil price, there is no doubt that inventory change is a very important factor. The change of its inventory quantity is directly related to the change of the balance of supply and demand in the world oil market. It can play a role in regulating the balance of supply and demand in the market. That is, throwing out inventory can increase the oil supply, and replenishing inventory will increase the demand. Inventory change (increase/decrease and flow direction) is mainly restricted and regulated by the balance between supply and demand, price increase and discount, inventory target volume, operating conditions, etc. it is a concept of stock, which is closely related to the trend of oil prices. Inventory can stabilize the oil price

concept and classification

oil inventory includes crude oil inventory and oil inventory. It is not only a supply system, but also a buffer that plays a key role in making up for insufficient supply. As far as crude oil is concerned, inventory can be divided into many types according to its subject, type, location, purpose and reasons for establishment. According to their purposes, crude oil inventory consists of some primary inventory and secondary and tertiary inventory used for refining refined oil. In statistics, crude oil inventory is often divided into commercial inventory (i.e. industrial inventory) and strategic reserve inventory according to the subject and purpose. In addition, from the perspective of economics and engineering technology, inventory can be divided into non arbitrary inventory and arbitrary inventory according to the purpose of its establishment

non discretionary inventory is the inventory to maintain the normal operation of the world oil supply system, which is mainly composed of minimum operating inventory, offshore inventory, strategic reserve inventory and safety obligation inventory. In order to support a growing oil supply system and its security, 136 non discretionary inventories of upstream and downstream technology industry plants usually rise with the increase of global crude oil demand. Ordinary commercial trade factors have little impact on non discretionary inventory, so theoretically, it is not very close to the price of crude oil

any inventory is the available commercial inventory, which is the part higher than the safety obligation inventory and the basis for ensuring the smooth progress of trade. The driving force behind it is commercial profit, which is closely related to the trend of crude oil price. Although the policy of oil companies in recent years is to use as low as possible any inventory, in fact, any inventory is rarely lower than its 10 day consumption

significance of EIA oil data report

the major oil futures markets in the world include the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the London international oil exchange (IPE) and the Tokyo industrial products exchange (TOCOM), which has sprung up in the past two years. In 2003, the trading volume of energy futures and options on the New York Mercantile Exchange exceeded 100million, accounting for more than 60% of the total volume of the three major energy exchanges. The West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) listed and traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange is the commodity futures with the largest trading volume in the world and one of the most important pricing benchmarks in the global oil market. In addition, the United States consumes about 900million tons of oil annually, accounting for about a quarter of the global total, of which about 600million tons need to be imported. It is the largest oil consumption market in the world. In view of this, this report will focus on the US oil inventory and the trend of WTI crude oil futures price. If we can grasp the change trend of inventory, we can say that we have grasped the trend of oil price to a great extent

the American Energy Information Association (EIA) regularly publishes weekly inventory data at 14:30 GMT every Wednesday. The data released include the changes in U.S. crude oil and oil product inventories as of last week, as well as the import and export of oil products and the start-up of refineries during the statistical period. The release of these data will not only directly affect the trend of oil prices, but also reveal the recent supply and demand of oil products, the hot spots of market concern, and even the policy orientation of the United States on oil prices from these abstract figures through simple statistical analysis. The trend and direction of these changes may become a key factor affecting future oil prices. This report will focus on the interpretation and analysis of this, hoping to play a meaningful reference role in the investment decision-making process of investors

latest statistical data as of October 10, 2008

inventory change table of main oil products

total inventory

change compared with the previous week

ma5

analysts' estimate of

change%

ma5%

trend

crude oil

30 increased by US $0.072/t (15180000 tons); The ocean freight from Western Australia to China is US $4.360/t 8198

5611

2032.8

1900

1.85%

0.69%

increase the strategic reserve

702134

-280

-1015.8

-

-0.04%

-0.14%

reduce

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193788

6973

1169.2

2900

3.73%%

0.66%

increase

heating oil

37450

-274

295.6

-

-0.73%

0.82%

uncertainty

distillate oil

122148

-453

-1662.4

400

-0.37%

-1.30%

decrease

note: 1 The figures in columns 2 to 5 of this table are in thousand barrels

2. A negative sign indicates that the inventory change is less than that in the previous statistical period

3. "Analyst forecast" refers to the estimated value of inventory changes interviewed by Reuters before the data release. If there is no corresponding value, it will be expressed with "-"

4. Change% = inventory change of this week/inventory

5, Ma5 and ma5% are the 5-week moving average of their corresponding figures in the left column

6 the "trend" column will display the recent general change trend of each category of inventory. If the "change over the previous week" and "Ma5" inventory changes of a category inventory are positive, the "trend" column will display "increase", otherwise it will display "decrease". If one is positive and one is negative, it will be "unclear"

inventory change chart of this week and Ma5

2. Please wipe the electroplating part with engine oil

inventory change and ma% change trend chart of this week. (source: Beijing metaphase)

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