It is difficult to make a big change in the fundam

2022-08-02
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Institution: it is difficult to make a big change in fundamentals. There is no hope of a plastic rebound. Release date: Source: Guoyuan futures. On Monday evening, the price of WTI crude oil futures in May that expired first fell below $10, then fell to $8, 5, 2, 0, and then fell below $0 per barrel. The closing price plummeted by about 300% to US $37.63 per barrel, falling to a negative value for the first time in history, and the lowest level in the session was US $40.32 per barrel

on Tuesday evening, investors worried about the deep economic damage caused by the COVID-19, and the panic selling spread to the June contract of WTI crude oil futures. The June contract once fell by nearly 70%, below 6.6 US dollars/barrel, a record low in the session

so last night trump launched another "Twitter storm"! Trump said that he had instructed key figures in the government to formulate a plan to raise funds from the troubled US oil and gas banks. 3. all pipeline systems adopt the non welded connection industry to cope with the current historic collapse in crude oil prices

however, according to the feedback from the disk, the market still doesn't buy it, and there are strong worries. The crude oil has been in a declining situation. Affected by this, chemicals continued to fall, and the focus of the plastic market returned to the downward trend this week. From the lowest point of 5410 this year to the recent rebound peak of 6555 in the second quarter, the market time reached about two weeks, with a range of 21.16%. However, this irrational trend, which had identified the fault before the hands-on inspection, finally returned to normal due to the fading of the heat of PP speculation

speculation atmosphere cooling price review rationality

in the production cycle of large-scale refining and chemical industry, it is difficult to change the weak trend of plastics in 2020. However, the upward driving force of plastic prices in early April was mainly driven by PP prices. Because the full outbreak of the epidemic abroad in the early stage led to a sharp increase in the market demand for masks. This has stimulated the production enterprises to switch to production one after another, reduced the supply of wire drawing materials, and led to a sharp rise in prices, which has led the plastics out of a wave of rebound trend

what followed was the continuous decline in the inventory of PetroChina and PetroChina. As of the 22nd, the inventory of PetroChina and PetroChina remained at 960000 tons, down 6.66% from 900000 tons at the end of last week. Compared with the first quarter, it has been greatly improved. And the total inventory of polyolefin ports has also declined significantly. As of the 20th, the total polyolefin port inventory reached 306400 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons compared with last week, a decrease of 6.13%; Compared with the same period last year, it fell by 22.7 percentage points, the lowest in the past three years

with the price rising all the way, the downstream market is not willing to take goods at high prices. Under the background of the relevant national departments' rectification of the industry chaos, the PP hype atmosphere declined, and the plastic market temporarily returned to rationality. However, its own special supervision on 5689 high energy consuming industrial enterprises across the country has been in a pattern of oversupply, and the market as a whole lacks upward rebound power. Driven by the pressure of PP and the sharp decline of crude oil, the professional terms of testing machines in the testing machine factory inevitably release the previously overestimated premium, resulting in the continuous decline of prices

insufficient maintenance and downstream demand support

facing the large production cycle of polyolefins, the centralized maintenance of manufacturers is also difficult to make up for the market decline. With the arrival of the second quarter, some units of domestic polyethylene enterprises will start annual overhaul. According to statistics, by the end of May, there were 17 sets of devices in the domestic PE industry with maintenance plans (including the devices currently under repair), involving a total capacity of 4.98 million tons. The industry will usher in the maintenance peak in mid May, and the maximum daily maintenance impact will reach 10600 tons

in March, 2020, the domestic output of plastic products was 7.845 million tons, an increase of 2.441 million tons or 45.17% compared with the same period last year. In 2020, the cumulative output of domestic plastic products was 15.729 million tons. However, the demand is far less than that of the same period last year, and the oversupply is still the main reason restricting the rebound of plastics. On the whole, the pressure on the plastic market is still high, and the probability of short-term improvement is almost zero

with the advent of summer, the demand for film is poor, the overall operating rate is 37.9%, and the weekly ring ratio is down 3%. The demand for packaging film is generally followed up, and the operating rate of enterprises is generally more than 60%. The order follow-up of some enterprises is not smooth, and the operation is unstable to 90%. The comprehensive operating rate was maintained at 63.0%. On the whole, the support from downstream to upstream costs is temporarily weak, and it is difficult to see a short-term turnaround

therefore, as the non-woven fabric hype fades, the polyolefin market has cooled significantly. It is difficult to change the pattern of weak shocks due to the continuous negative decline of crude oil prices, a sharp decline in the focus of the plastic market, and cautious trading

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