It is difficult for the most popular rubber market

2022-08-01
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[rubber market] the periodic callback is difficult to stop the pace of the Tianjiao bull market

last week, after the international and domestic natural rubber markets hit a record high, they went out of the callback market one after another. In particular, the domestic natural rubber futures market suffered a large decline in the overall price due to the negative rumors of tariff adjustment, and the market differences suddenly increased. Investors who were firmly bullish in the early stage began to waver. So, will the natural rubber bull market continue to fall with the fall last week

looking forward to the future of natural rubber, the author believes that the bull market operation pattern is difficult to change in a short time due to the impact of periodic correction, and the natural rubber market presents a fundamental situation of relatively unbalanced supply and demand with strong bull market characteristics, without any substantive change. With the development of the callback market, some new market features are gradually emerging

the domestic spot price rose sharply, forming a new main contract ru603 in the Shanghai Jiao futures market last week. Since the high of 18730 yuan/ton that week, after a short period of three trading days, the futures price quickly returned to the front line of 17500 yuan/ton in the form of rapid decline, with a decline of up to 1200 yuan/ton; The spot contract ru511 even fell to 17000 yuan/ton by last Friday. Compared with the domestic futures market with weak bearing capacity, the domestic spot market, especially the domestic No. 5 standard glue in Hainan and Yunnan production areas, has remained strong, and the spot premium in the futures pattern has initially taken shape. As of last Friday, the main domestic production area Hainan No. 5 standard glue hanging list still maintained the basic function of 1 aluminum alloy tensile and compressive strength testing machine: the tensile performance was 7700 yuan/ton, and the premium in domestic Shanghai glue futures was as high as 900 yuan/ton; However, the pegged price of 17500 yuan/ton in Yunnan production area is 800 yuan/ton in Shanghai Jiao futures

judging from the current market supply situation of domestic No. 5 standard glue, under the background of substantial production reduction after Hainan, the main production area, was hit hard by typhoon David, it is expected that the two reclamation areas in Hainan and Yunnan will reduce the spot price under the background of scarce resources. The author believes that this is almost impossible. Especially starting from the initial platform, the two reclamation areas can stop cutting and store inventory in the first quarter of 2006 due to their appropriate reluctance to sell under the current inventory tension. Therefore, last week, as the Shanghai Jiao futures market fell sharply, a large number of trade buyers from the spot market entered the market to undertake contracts in recent months. Not only the November contract, but also the January 2006 contract has become a quasi spot contract that spot traders focus on buying. After the sharp fall of the futures market last week, the spot rising water grid will become a major feature of the natural rubber market for some time to come

in the bull market, the spot premium pattern provides convenient conditions for the monthly cash position squeeze to a certain extent. At present, once this spot premium pattern is maintained, the rising speed and range of spot prices in the future market will accelerate with the gradual reduction of resource supply, which will inevitably lead to the increase of the recent month contract of Shanghai Jiao futures being greater than the forward contract. Therefore, the sample holding device of the tensile test will further evolve into a high in the recent month and a low in the far month in the process of exerting force at any position. Based on the judgment of this situation, the current main contract 603, as time goes by, will most likely be the time period when the domestic No. 5 standard glue will be out of stock before and after the Spring Festival. After entering 2006, the March contract is likely to become a crazy spot buying contract, and at the same time, the short positions will be cut sharply, resulting in the soaring futures price

China has launched a new round of procurement in the international market. Although Thailand, the main producer in Southeast Asia, has entered the traditional high production period, the continuous rainfall has made it difficult for the local rubber tapping to return to normal. There is still a big problem in integrating "Internet +" into the traditional steel trade industry. Meanwhile, in November, Muslim Eid al Fitr is approaching, and Muslim small business owners in Southeast Asia usually stop work for a week. At present, although the off-season of rubber tapping in southern Indonesia is coming to an end, it will still take some time for the market to recover its normal supply level. At present, the production area in northern Indonesia is also experiencing continuous rain

last Friday, with the correction of natural rubber prices in the past week, Chinese buying began to appear in the international market. About a month has passed since the last centralized procurement before the national day. The enterprise maintains turnover inventory, which determines that the new round of purchase has been restarted. Under the background that some large domestic tire enterprises are facing the "bottleneck" of turnover inventory, enterprises must seek resources in overseas markets. The timing of this round of procurement coincides with the favorable opportunity for the linkage correction of international and domestic spot and futures prices

in terms of international buying, the CIF price for purchasing sir20 is basically between us $1630-650/ton. Since Hainan, the main domestic production area, was hit by a strong typhoon in late September, resulting in a sharp decline in domestic resources in the later part of the year, it is bound to increase its purchasing efforts in overseas markets. Therefore, it can be judged that with the launch of a new round of centralized procurement of Chinese buying, it is expected to drive the international rubber price higher again. Up to now, the supply of November shipment has been basically signed. At present, buyers can only sign the supply of December and January next year. The latest quotations (FOB) of the three major rubber producing countries Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia on the 20th standard rubber last Friday were 1700 US dollars/ton, 1630 US dollars/ton and 1610 US dollars/ton respectively. From January to September this year, China imported 990000 tons of natural rubber, a year-on-year increase of 7%. Compared with last year, the import volume continued to maintain a growth level, and the market has not been significantly restrained by the rise in raw material prices

demand drives the price upward continuously

although the market supply is not very sufficient, the Japanese rubber futures market in the international market also fell to a certain extent last week due to the continuous decline of crude oil, but the overall decline is quite limited. The operation of the fund in the Japanese rubber futures market is still very flexible. Last week, after the pullback of more than 200 yen/kg, it showed an adjustment requirement. However, 190 yen/ton is the main resistance level for the fund to launch the rising market before the National Day holiday, which has become an important support level from a technical point of view. After the fund position fell from the high level, there was a certain reduction, but the main position position was not cleared. Funds from the United States have made long Tianjiao futures in the Far East from afar, which is also based on a long-term strategic consideration

last week, the overall decline in the international and domestic natural rubber market was a normal part of the bull market. After the price fall, some new market patterns have been formed, such as the spot premium in the domestic natural rubber market is higher than that in the futures market, and the appropriate fall of prices in the international market leads to the re entry of demand buying. The spot price in the domestic natural rubber market above 18000 yuan/ton will take some time to be accepted by the rubber enterprises, and it also needs an adaptation process psychologically. Only after a round of rising, callback and rising, can the market find a relative equilibrium point in the repositioning of commodity prices. Just like all rising commodities, it takes a process from the rising price of upstream raw materials to the acceptance of downstream consumers. As for the natural rubber market, it is precisely because of the fact that the shortage of goods has determined that under the strong impetus of demand, the tight supply will continue to push the price to new highs one after another

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